Superbowl, statistical inference, deduction and a bold conclusion

This one is for the research methods students out there. I just ran some numbers using MedCalc. During this season (not including pre-season) the Patriot’s were 3.66 times more likely to win a game when I watched the game from home (95% CI: [.35, 38], z = 1.089, p = 0.2673). Including pre-season, they were 4.4 times more likely to win a game when I watched the game from home (95% CI: [.59, 32], z = 1.452, p = 0.1462).

By deduction:

If I watch the game from home, then the Patriot’s are 4.4 times more likely to win the game.

I will watch the game from home.

Therefore, the Patriot’s are 4.4 times more likely to win the game.

That is a valid deductive argument. But is it sound?

You may find it helpful in preparing for your mid term this semester to be able to identify the problems with the above reasoning (i.e. why the deduction is not sound). This one is easy - so blatant, and several problems.

Enjoy the day!

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